Brokerage firm Robinhood plans to enter the sports betting sector, but analysts believe that to succeed in a highly competitive environment, it will need ambitious strategies or key acquisitions.
At Robinhood’s first investor event, held on December 4, CEO Vlad Tenev highlighted the cultural and customer significance of the sector.
“We are actively exploring the U.S. market. Nothing to announce just yet, but it’s so important to our customers and in culture that we’re excited about it,” Tenev said.
Tenev also suggested that Robinhood’s strategy in this new direction might resemble its recent launch of event contracts related to the 2024 presidential election, rather than a traditional sportsbook model.
Event contracts allow users to trade results among themselves, rather than betting directly with the operator.
Founded in 2013, Robinhood revolutionized the retail investment market by offering a commission-free trading platform and focusing on young, tech-savvy investors.
The company, which gained significant attention for its role in the GameStop stock trading frenzy in 2021, has since expanded its services to include cryptocurrencies, cash management, and retirement accounts.
Analysts Share Their Opinion
Analysts at JMP Securities expressed doubts about Robinhood’s ability to establish itself in the competitive sports betting market.
They pointed out that it is “incredibly hard to start from scratch,” in this industry, emphasizing the need for significant investments in technology, licensing, and infrastructure to develop a betting product.
Furthermore, they highlighted that even large players are facing challenges in capturing a significant market share in the U.S., despite multi-billion dollar investments.
“The US sports betting market is projected to increase to $14bn in 2024E, presenting an attractive, growing market, but even investments from the established mid-scale online companies have ranged from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, only to garner mid-single-digit market share,” JMP said.
The analysts added that Robinhood might achieve greater success by developing a betting exchange, which could help mitigate the “risks associated with traditional sports betting.”
Mergers and Acquisitions as the “Only Real Way”
Analysts also emphasized that, in order for Robinhood to secure a meaningful position in the competitive sports betting market, the company would likely need to resort to mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
“We believe the customer funds are the selling point if Robinhood is seriously considering an interest in US sports betting.
“That said, Robinhood would still need technology and product, the two most important aspects of a sports betting operation, and we believe it would need to look at M&A,” the firm noted.
They cited Fanatics’ 2024 acquisition of PointsBet’s U.S. division as an example, which allowed the company to leverage its database and technological resources to strengthen its market.
“M&A is the only real viable option,” JMP wrote, citing potential targets including Rush Street Interactive and Fanatics.
However, they acknowledged that Robinhood would face regulatory challenges, including the need to separate customer funds between investment and betting operations.
Tenev’s comments led to a brief drop in the stock prices of major players in the sports betting market, such as DraftKings and Flutter, although most of them recovered by the end of the trading day.
Challenges Ahead
Analysts concluded that Robinhood’s path to success in sports betting will be challenging, particularly given the dominance of industry leaders FanDuel and DraftKings, which control 75-80% of the U.S. market.
“The hurdles Robinhood would need to overcome, even via M&A, would take time and capital,” the firm said, adding that innovation by existing players could further solidify their market positions.
“We are not writing off Robinhood as a legitimate threat, or any other company looking at entering the space, but we believe FanDuel and DraftKings products and technology will only improve as companies develop a differentiated strategy.
“Overall, we believe there is no outside threat to the top two companies at this time, and that any others attempting to gain meaningful market share will need to do so over time, through a strong brand, product, and loyalty,” the analysts added.
Robinhood has not yet provided a timeline for any potential sports betting initiatives.
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