In the gambling industry it certainly seems like anything is possible, as it continued to surprise us 2024. For example, the historic October handle numbers proved indeed the house can take a hit, as a slew of public favorites resulted in dramatic hits to the bottom line.
Overall in 2024 though, the narrative of booming revenue and new records continued, even as the number of new states launching dwindled. Year-over-year industry growth has, to date, been a given when it comes to sports betting in the U.S., but can that trend continue into 2025?
The SBC Americas offered its take on what they expect to happen in 2025 when it comes to sports betting revenue:
Jessica Welman
I will be the bearer of bad news. Sure, there are going to be more records and higher hold in 2025 but I am also going to say at least one more state goes back in and revises to a higher tax rate. Michigan already has a placeholder bill introduced and I think others that may have rushed to pass legislation during COVID are going to look back at the deal and question if operators are paying their fair share. What is going to be lost in that narrative though is how many small operators closed up shop in 2024 and couldn’t compete precisely because the barrier to enter is getting higher and higher.
Justin Byers
It’s no secret that sports betting continues to reach new milestones as markets continue to grow and operators acquire new customers. America’s online market will continue to be dominated by states with bustling cities, including Pennsylvania and New York, but we may get some surprises in 2025 from markets with popular teams and sports-crazed fans.
North Carolina got off to a hot start in March with the debut of online wagering and slowly saw handle and revenue decline as the sports calendar shifted. The Tar Heel State could be in for another surge of interest in 2025 with a more mature and consolidated market.
With states like Pennsylvania and Michigan continuing to drive record sports betting results, expect one of America’s regulated sports betting markets to exceed revenue expectations.
Tom Nightingale
The duopoly isn’t ending anytime soon but at least some challenger brands are finding ways to make their mark. That race is more interesting to me than much else, really; whether BetMGM and Caesars can hold steady, how bet365 continues to grow, if Fanatics’ steep 2024 curve is at all sustainable, and whether ESPN Bet’s brand name and media-betting integration can save its damp-squib status. With low-impact sportsbooks like Betway, SI, Unibet, SuperBook, WynnBet and Betfred all exiting or scaling back, there’s an opportunity for consolidation and further penetration among the second tier.
Something sportsbooks need to do better is find a way to insulate themselves against the effects of “customer-friendly” sports results slapping them in the face, as we saw in October. The importance of winning on parlays, something we’ve heard numerous execs discuss in recent months, may be underscored in 2025.
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