Investment bank Jefferies has revised its 2025 Macau Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) forecast, lowering it by 2% to MOP$240 billion (US$30 billion). This adjustment brings the forecast in line with previous government estimates following weaker-than-expected results in January and February.
The updated forecast reflects a 5.8% year-on-year industry growth, with gaming revenues expected to rise by 6.9% from March through December.
In their report, Jefferies analysts emphasized that their revised 2025 GGR forecast remains 2% above market consensus. They expect mass-market revenue to grow by 6.9%, while the average market forecast predicts a 4.8% increase.
Analysts noted that the introduction of a multi-entry visa for Zhuhai residents, effective January 2025, along with the “Group-in-Group-out” multi-entry visa program launching in May 2024, will continue to boost tourist arrivals to Macau and drive growth in mass-market revenues.
According to forecasts, Sands China and Galaxy are expected to strengthen their market positions in 2025-2026, while MGM and Wynn are likely to remain stable.
“We expect the newly announced multi-entry visa for Zhuhai residents effective in Jan 2025 together with the ‘Group-in-Group-out’ multi-entry visa effective in May 2024 to continue to help boost visitations to Macau and mass gaming revenue,” Jefferies said.
The bank also noted that it rates most concessionaires as a “Buy,” while SJM’s stock was rated as “Hold” due to the company’s need for more time to improve its GLP property margin and the uncertainty surrounding the future of satellite casinos.
Additionally, Jefferies forecasts GGR growth of 5.4% to MOP$253 billion (US$31.6 billion) in 2026 and introduced its first forecast for 2027, expecting an additional 5.1% increase to MOP$266 billion (US$33.2 billion).
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