Macau’s lagging base mass segment is set to receive a welcome boost in the coming months amid China’s recently announced plan to boost revenues and provide support in light of rising US tariffs on Chinese goods, according to Seaport Research’s latest report.
In a note, Seaport’s Vitaly Umansky noted that while Macau’s broader online gaming segment has been strong post-COVID, this has been driven by the premium sector, with GGR operating around 40% above 2019 levels. However, the broad segment continues to lag – still 15% below 2019 – with overnight GGR even weaker given that same-day business from Guangdong and Hong Kong has been stronger than the destination base mass.
Despite this, there remains reason for optimism after China’s annual bisessions in Beijing outlined a new economic policy plan to further support the initial stimulus measures announced in late September and the ongoing support provided to shore up the property market.
The document released last week, titled the “Special Action Plan to Stimulate Consumption,” was jointly issued by the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council, and includes a number of key elements.
These include promoting household income growth by implementing employment support programs, providing vocational training, raising the minimum wage, expanding labor compensation, and stabilizing the stock and property markets. It also includes boosting consumer demand by providing subsidies for childbirth, child care, education, health care, and elderly care. And further support for consumption for daily needs, culture, sports, and tourism; and much more.
“While the tariffs and retaliatory measures remain an overhang, we expect China’s focus on shoring up the economy and providing further stimulus to improve economic activity and consumer confidence in China in 2025 with the obvious goal of improving domestic consumption,” Umansky wrote.
“With an increasing tariff regime in the US, we expect China policymakers to more forcefully look at expanding consumption and improving domestic consumer confidence which the latest set of actions highlights. Such policy initiatives should have a positive tailwind to Macau revenues.
“Our view on China economic improvement and corresponding uplift in consumer sentiment could lead to stronger base mass recovery (with continued premium growth) in 2025 and into 2026.”
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