International trading platform ITS is launching a Prediction Market, a new type of exchange-traded contract that allows participants to take positions on the outcomes of future events.
At the initial stage, users will have access to four contracts linked to Bitcoin, SpaceX, the base rate of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and the key interest rate of the US Federal Reserve. ITS plans to expand the offering over time by adding new events, markets, and scenarios.
Traditionally, investment strategies are built around expectations of changes in the value of an asset, such as stocks, currencies, commodities, or other financial instruments. A Prediction Market takes a different approach: instead of taking a position on price movements, participants can trade based on the probability of a specific event occurring.
A central bank decision, an asset reaching a certain price level, or another predefined scenario can become a standalone market outcome. The contract price is determined directly through trading and reflects participants’ collective assessment of the likelihood of a particular outcome.
Event contracts also provide a way to manage event-specific risks separately. Even an unlikely event can have a significant impact on the value of an investment portfolio. A Prediction Market allows participants to take a separate position on such a scenario and determine the potential outcome in advance.
“Launching the Prediction Market is an important milestone in the development of ITS’s product offering and the region’s financial infrastructure. Financial markets have learned to trade the value of assets. Now we are adding another dimension — the ability to trade on the probability of events occurring.
Investors gain a simple tool for expressing their views on the future, while the market gains a new mechanism for forming a collective assessment of the probability of different scenarios. Bitcoin, SpaceX, and central bank decisions are just the beginning. Going forward, such contracts could cover a wide range of events and scenarios, from macroeconomic indicators and commodity markets to corporate events,” said Kurmet Orazayev, CEO of ITS.
How the Prediction Market Works
Each event contract is based on a specific question about the future with two possible outcomes: the condition will either be met or not.
Until the settlement date, the contract can be freely traded on the market. Its price ranges from $0.01 to $0.99 and is determined by supply and demand.
The contract price reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of the relevant outcome occurring. The higher the contract price, the higher the probability that market participants assign to the specified condition being met.
On the expiration date, if the condition is met, the contract settles at $1. If the condition is not met, its settlement value is $0.
This model simplifies the process of trading complex market scenarios and makes it easier to understand. Participants do not need to purchase the underlying asset or construct complex combinations of financial instruments. Instead, they can take a direct position on the outcome they are interested in.
Four Initial Event Contracts
At the initial stage, ITS is launching four event contracts:
- Bitcoin — will the price of Bitcoin be above the specified reference value?
- SpaceX — will the price of SPCX be above the specified reference value?
- National Bank of Kazakhstan interest rate — will the base rate exceed 16.75%?
- US Federal Reserve interest rate — will the upper bound of the federal funds target range set by the FOMC be above 3.75%?
The initial offering covers contracts linked to a range of events, from changes in the value of digital and corporate assets to central bank decisions.
Trading in event contracts has been launched within FinTech Lab, a special regulatory regime of the Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) designed to test and introduce new financial instruments. ITS received the relevant approval from AFSA to launch the Prediction Market.
The first trades took place on 8 September 2026. The new product was presented with the participation of AFSA representatives at the third annual ITS Ideas 2026 conference, held as part of Astana Finance Days.
“We have been working toward this launch for a long time. We studied the experience of other financial centres and looked at how different jurisdictions approach derivatives markets and prediction markets. The launch has now taken place. We wish the ITS team every success, while always keeping investor protection in mind,” said Vladimir Savov, Managing Director of the Financial Markets Office at AFSA.
About ITS
ITS is an international trading platform operating under the jurisdiction of AFSA.
The platform provides investors with access to more than 3,200 global market instruments, including assets listed in the US and Kazakhstan.
Among the products developed with the participation of ITS are exchange-traded funds based on its proprietary indices, as well as the ability to trade shares of companies preparing for an IPO before they begin trading in New York.
In 2025, ITS reported record results, with total trading volume exceeding $14 billion, 70 times higher than in 2024. The number of investors with access to the trading platform exceeded 1.2 million. The platform has 23 participants from seven countries: Kazakhstan, Armenia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Kyrgyzstan, Oman, and South Africa.
ITS’s clients include professional securities market participants from Kazakhstan and other countries, including financial intermediaries accredited or registered with AFSA. Retail and corporate investors access trading through financial intermediaries such as brokers and banks.
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